Zonovan Knight Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Zonovan Knight

NFL · Player Props

Zonovan Knight

RB · New York Jets

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Zonovan Knight Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-273).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -261 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -273.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-most touchdowns in the league (1.09 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jets are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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