THE BLITZ Season-Long Projections

THE BLITZ Season-Long Projections (Preseason)

Projections:

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Glossary

Market Adjusted Rank

The player's final rank with all adjustments made. Based on Market Adjusted Points, which are adjusted for positional scarcity and market dynamics. Fantasy players draft inefficiently. In terms of Scarcity Adjusted Points, running backs tend to get very overdrafted, and a position like TE gets underdrafted. Travis Kelce may rank very high in terms of Scarcity Adjusted Rank, but you might not actually want to take him that high. After all, if all TEs are going to be underdrafted, you may be able to get an equal or greater value on a TE later, whereas RB tend to be more overdrafted the further along a draft goes, leaving very few late values. So when all is said and done, it's actually most efficient to draft "inefficiently" due to these market dynamics. RBs should be ranked higher, and TEs should be ranked lower. This Rank attempts to account for these dynamics.

Scarcity Adjusted Rank

The player's rank based on their Scarcity Adjusted Points (points adjusted for positional scarcity), which is also influenced by the Scoring System and Number of Teams you have selected. Keep in mind, this represents a player's true mathematical value but doesn't necessarily mean this is the spot you should draft him. See: Market Adjusted Rank for more.

Position Rank

The player's rank within his primary position group based on the projected Points of each player based on the Scoring System you have selected

Points

The total points the player is projected for based on the Scoring System you have selected

Scarcity Adjusted Points

The player's Points adjusted for position scarcity. For example, if you have selected 12 as your Number of Teams, 12 quarterbacks will be drafted in your league. Therefore, the 12th-best QB is deemed the "replacement level QB" -- the absolute worst QB you will be stuck with if you wait until everyone else has drafted a QB to draft yours. Adjusted Points is calculated as each QB's Points minus this #12 "replacement-level" QB's Points. By definition, all replacement-level players will have 0 Adjusted Points, and all players below them will have negative Adjusted Points.

Market Adjusted Points

Scarcity Adjusted Points with a further adjustment for market dynamics, as elaborated in Market Adjusted Rank. To make this adjustment, I looked at every player's ADP and the nearest player to them at each of the other positions (i.e. for a RB at a 100 ADP, I'd take the WR at 99 ADP, the QB at 101 ADP, and the TE at 102 ADP). I compared their Scarcity Adjusted Points, and then averaged them for all draftable players for the selected Scoring System and Number of Teams, and adjusted all players at a position using these figures. In this way, we can capture which positions offer more profit throughout the draft and which high-end players effectively have more or less value as a result.

ADP

Average Draft Position, courtesy of NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championship). Please note that these are derived from PPR leagues, so if you're playing in a Standard of Half-PPR league, certain players may deviate more from ADP than others

ADP Value

The difference between Market Adjusted Rank and ADP. Sorting by this column will be useful for identifying potential values, but keep in mind that gaps will generally be larger (and less significant) for higher-ADP players. A first-round caliber player whose ADP is 10 spots below his projected rank will, effectively, be more valuable than a 20th-round player whose ADP is 10 spots below his projected rank. We are currently developing a measure to better account for this dynamic.

Bye

The player's bye week for the 2021 season

PaAtt

Passing attempts

PaComp

Passing completions

Ints

Interceptions thrown

PaYds

Passing yards

PaTD

Passing touchdowns

RuAtt

Rushing attempts

RuYds

Rushing yards

RuTD

Rushing touchdowns

Trg

Receiving targets

RecComp

Receiving completions

RecYds

Receiving yards

RecTD

Receiving touchdowns

Def Sacks

Sacks for a DST (different from QB sacks; will be 0 for all offensive players)

Def Ints

Interceptions for a DST (different from QB interceptions; will be 0 for all offensive players)

Fumble Recoveries

Recovered fumbles for a DST (different from Lost Fumbles; will be 0 for all offensive players)

Safeties

Safeties for a DST (will be 0 for all offensive players)

Def TD

Touchdowns for a DST (will be 0 for all offensive players)

Points Allowed Stats

Each week, THE BLITZ projects the percentage chance a defense will allow the number of points in each of these buckets. These are the sum total of all 17 weeks. They should add to 17 for each defense (100% times 17). This is the best way to project defensive points allowed.

Field goals kicked (please note, THE BLITZ's kicker projections are extremely basic and don't use as rigorous a methodology as offensive and defensive projections do. They are mostly just based off the modest correlation between kicker stats and their team's points scored)

Extra points kicked (please note, THE BLITZ's kicker projections are extremely basic and don't use as rigorous a methodology as offensive and defensive projections do. They are mostly just based off the modest correlation between kicker stats and their team's points scored)