Zonovan Knight Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Zonovan Knight

RB · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Zonovan Knight Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.