Zonovan Knight Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Zonovan Knight

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Zonovan Knight Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency versus running backs this year, surrendering 5.39 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.