Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In terms of a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.49 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars as the 6th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
The projections expect Zay Jones to accumulate 7.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Zay Jones has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (75.8% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (91.3%).
Zay Jones's 3.5 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a remarkable decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 5.1 figure.
Zay Jones's 54.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a material regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 70.3% rate.
This year, the daunting Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed a paltry 61.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 6th-best rate in football.

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