Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-139/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Jaguars have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.2 per game) this year.
Zay Jones's 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 51.1.
Zay Jones's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this season shows a noteable decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 5.1 rate.
Zay Jones's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 70.3% to 58.2%.
This year, the tough Browns defense has given up a puny 55.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the smallest rate in football.

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