Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 5, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.3 per game on average).
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a massive 10.5-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Zay Jones has been much less involved in his offense's passing game this season (14.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.0%).
Zay Jones's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, averaging just 2.6 adjusted receptions compared to 5.1 last year.

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