Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -149 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
Zay Jones has gone out for fewer passes this year (90.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (57.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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