Zay Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

My Account Log Out

reorder

Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Zay Jones has run fewer routes this year (91.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (60.1%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

More Zay Jones Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow