Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to accumulate 6.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has earned a colossal 25.8% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to be a less important option in his offense's passing attack this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.0% in games he has played).
Zay Jones has been among the least effective receivers in football, averaging a lowly 7.34 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 20th percentile among WRs
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 130.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.

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