Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
Zay Jones has gone out for fewer passes this year (90.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (57.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Zay Jones has posted far more air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).

Favors Under

Zay Jones has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a mere 6.77 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 13th percentile among WRs
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.46 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.