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Zay Jones

Zay Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Zay Jones has received a colossal 20.5% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wideouts.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Zay Jones's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.5% to 79.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to be a less important option in his team's pass attack this week (17.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (23.3% in games he has played).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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