Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Zay Jones has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (91.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (60.1%).

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 132.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.4%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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