Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (+107/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to garner 8.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Zay Jones has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a measly 7.44 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 16th percentile among WRs
The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 140.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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