Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (+109/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Zay Jones has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
Zay Jones has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 6.82 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 15th percentile among WRs
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 10th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.