Zay Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Zay Jones has been among the worst wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 2.81 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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