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Zay Jones

Zay Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Zay Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate.

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Zay Jones has been among the worst wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 2.81 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 14th percentile.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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