Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+228/-356).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -342 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -356.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.
Zay Jones has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.7% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has posted far more air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
Zay Jones's 47.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 32.0.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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