Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 3:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Zay Jones has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones has notched far more air yards this season (73.0 per game) than he did last season (59.0 per game).
Zay Jones's 49.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 32.0.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the least TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.14 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.