Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+240/-383).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -376 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -383.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Zay Jones has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which places him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Zay Jones's 45.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 32.0.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 8th-least TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.