Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-420).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Zay Jones has received a colossal 20.5% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wideouts.
Zay Jones's 49.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 32.0.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Zay Jones's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.5% to 79.0%.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to be a less important option in his team's passing game near the end zone this week (16.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.1% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans defense has yielded the least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.25 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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