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Zay Jones

Zay Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+269/-452).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -397 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -452.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Zay Jones has received a colossal 20.5% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wide receivers.

Zay Jones's 49.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 32.0.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to be a less important option in his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (18.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.1% in games he has played).

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (56.9%) versus wide receivers this year (56.9%).

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 3rd-least passing TDs in football to wide receivers: 0.70 per game since the start of last season.

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