Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+285/-493).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +322 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +285.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Jones to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (15.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.0% in games he has played).
Zay Jones's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.5% to 71.0%.
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 0.68 per game since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.