Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Zay Jones

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+269/-445).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -381 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -445.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Zay Jones has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.4% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Zay Jones's 50.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 32.8.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Zay Jones has posted far fewer air yards this year (56.0 per game) than he did last year (61.0 per game).
Zay Jones ranks in the 25th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.09 per game.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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