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Zay Jones

Zay Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-385).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -336 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -385.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Zay Jones has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.5% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among WRs.

Zay Jones's 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 32.0.

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Zay Jones has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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