Zay Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Zay Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+282/-467).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -356 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -467.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Zay Jones has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.6% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Zay Jones's 43.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 32.0.

Favors Under

Zay Jones has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (59.0 per game).
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 10th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.