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Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (42.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast Zay Flowers to notch 7.7 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Zay Flowers has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 27.5% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.

Zay Flowers comes in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 5.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

The model projects the Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.22 seconds per snap.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

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