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Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In this week's game, Zay Flowers is projected by the model to place in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.4 targets.

With a top-tier 26.2% Target Share (92nd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in the league.

With an exceptional 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (87th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.

Zay Flowers profiles as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 72.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.

The Pittsburgh cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 51.2% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

At the present time, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.

The Steelers pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.9%).

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