Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
With a top-tier 92.8% Route Participation% (91st percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been among the WRs with the most usage in football.
The leading projections forecast Zay Flowers to earn 7.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
The Seahawks cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.

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