Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (42.0 per game) this year.
With an impressive 94.8% Route Participation% (95th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.
In this week's game, Zay Flowers is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets.
Zay Flowers checks in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 6.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year with their pass rush.

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