Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With an exceptional 95.9% Route% (97th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places as one of the WRs with the most usage in football.
The model projects Zay Flowers to garner 8.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
With a stellar 6.0 adjusted receptions per game (91st percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the top wide receivers in the league in the NFL.
With a fantastic 76.6% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.

Favors Under

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.

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