Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Flowers to garner 7.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Zay Flowers has been among the most reliable receivers in the league, hauling in an impressive 88.7% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 94th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.

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