Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Flowers to notch 7.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Zay Flowers to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.0% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) to WRs since the start of last season (63.8%).

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