Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Zay Flowers has run a route on 92.5% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to earn 7.1 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
The projections expect the Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (55.5%) versus WRs this year (55.5%).

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