Zay Flowers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/-102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
With an extraordinary 91.8% Route Participation Rate (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers ranks as one of the wideouts with the most usage in football.
In this contest, Zay Flowers is anticipated by the model to land in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.1 targets.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

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