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Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (42.7 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast Zay Flowers to notch 7.7 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Zay Flowers has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 27.5% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Zay Flowers has been responsible for a whopping 24.4% of his team's air yards this year: 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

The model projects the Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.22 seconds per snap.

This year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a measly 6.7 yards.

This year, the stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a puny 3.5 YAC.

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