Zay Flowers Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Zay Flowers has played on 84.8% of his team's snaps this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The model projects Zay Flowers to garner 8.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Browns defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 127.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
The Browns pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.