Zay Flowers Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Zay Flowers

NFL · Player Props

Zay Flowers

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The model projects Zay Flowers to garner 6.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With an exceptional 24.4% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers stands among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the league.
Zay Flowers has been responsible for a colossal 25.2% of his offense's air yards this year: 78th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
This year, the tough Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed a puny 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

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