Zack Moss Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Right now, the 6th-most run-centric team in the league (42.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
Zack Moss's 86.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a remarkable progression in his running prowess over last year's 34.0 mark.

Favors Under

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The predictive model expects Zack Moss to be a much smaller part of his team's ground game in this game (37.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (64.4% in games he has played).
This year, the imposing Saints run defense has conceded a feeble 96.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-best in the league.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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