Zack Moss Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Zack Moss has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 23.5% of snaps vs 23.5% last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in football (just 86 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends project as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.