Zack Moss Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:35 AM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 4th-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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