Zack Moss Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Zack Moss

NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Zack Moss to accrue 3.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Zack Moss has been among the bottom RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 19th percentile among running backs.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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