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Zack Moss

Zack Moss Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Zack Moss Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -126.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.

Zack Moss has compiled a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Zack Moss has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (19.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (32.5%).

Zack Moss's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a mere 3.68 yards-per-target compared to a 6.87 rate last season.

Zack Moss's talent in generating extra yardage have diminished this year, notching a mere 4.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.61 figure last year.

More Zack Moss Player Props

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