Zack Moss Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Zack Moss

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Zack Moss Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Zack Moss has compiled a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Zack Moss has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (19.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (32.5%).
Zack Moss's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a mere 3.68 yards-per-target compared to a 6.87 rate last season.
Zack Moss's talent in generating extra yardage have diminished this year, notching a mere 4.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.61 figure last year.