Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-222).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 10th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.3% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 58.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Jets have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
In this week's game, Zach Wilson is predicted by the model to average the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.2.
The New York O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
With an awful rate of just 0.71 per game (19th percentile), Zach Wilson places as one of the worst touchdown throwers in the league this year.

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