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Zach Wilson

Zach Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+153).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +153.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.

Zach Wilson's throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 55.9% to 62.9%.

The Eagles defense has yielded the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.20 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Jets have been the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 50.5% red zone pass rate.

Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.

This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a paltry 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 10th-smallest rate in football.

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