Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+153).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
Zach Wilson's throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 55.9% to 62.9%.
The Eagles defense has yielded the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.20 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jets have been the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 50.5% red zone pass rate.
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a paltry 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 10th-smallest rate in football.

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