Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:11 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.
Zach Wilson's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 55.9% to 61.6%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
When talking about pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Zach Wilson has been among the bottom TD passers in the league this year, averaging a paltry 0.73 per game while checking in at the 13th percentile.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's group of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.