Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-136/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog this week.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (61.3% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.
At a mere 27.04 seconds per snap, the Jets offense ranks as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
With a lousy ratio of only 0.60 per game (21st percentile), Zach Wilson ranks as one of the weakest touchdown passers in football this year.
The Texans defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest passing TDs in the league: 1.00 per game this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston's group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

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