Zach Wilson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Zach Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+196/-284).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -254 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -284.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 5th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 2.00 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Zach Wilson has been among the least on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a 53.2% Completion%, ranking in the 20th percentile.
Zach Wilson has been among the bottom TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.71 per game while checking in at the 18th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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