Zach Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (9.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.0% in games he has played).
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to accumulate 2.3 carries this week, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
Zach Wilson has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).
Zach Wilson's rushing efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a measly 5.34 yards-per-carry vs a 7.98 mark last season.