Zach Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+110/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (8.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-most yards in the league (131 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 4th-worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to earn 2.4 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Zach Wilson's running effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling a measly 5.63 yards-per-carry vs a 7.98 rate last year.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.