Zach Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Zach Wilson

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Zach Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (10.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.8% in games he has played).
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Zach Wilson's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging just 5.53 yards-per-carry vs a 7.98 rate last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.44 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.